New Federal EV sales mandate might hurt EV “have not” provinces
When a federal sales mandate was first mooted in March 2022, I said at the time that even as it was welcome overall it could be bad for many Canadians. Why? Because existing provincial EV sales targets in Quebec and BC were very successful … but also meant carmakers sell two thirds of their Canadian EVs in those two provinces alone to satisfy their quotas. Ontario has no provincial mandate but EVs are being built there now and its market remains strong. As a result, though, the rest of Canada has fewer than 10% of the EVs to share between us!
Why such a stark difference? Quebec benefits particularly from its inexpensive electricity but where EVs are already selling well it is also easier than it would be elsewhere to sell each additional EV because of a virtuous circle.
The big three provinces there continue to develop extensive charging infrastructure and EV-supportive policies because of higher present and projected EV adoption. Crucially, both dealers and customers are already learning firsthand what EVs can offer and how to sell and support them. And the big three markets each have large populations, so they can support specialist dealers and smaller carmakers and brands, offering consumers a wide selection.
The risk is that EV “have not” provinces and territories (like Newfoundland and Labrador where I live) get further shut out of the market if manufacturers can largely meet new national targets by selling where it is already easiest. Customers elsewhere can of course still request EVs through their local dealers, but if they are not on forecourts, there is not a big second hand market and dealers don’t understand them well or market them, selling enough EVs to build familiarity and support the growth of more EV infrastructure could continue to be a struggle. In provinces like Alberta, with premiers who barely conceal their hostility to electric vehicles, the situation could be still worse.
I hoped in 2022 there would be provincial targets set or implied by the federal government, but this did not happen. So if you live in the prairies or the Atlantic provinces and want to have continued access to a wide range of EVs, I would press your premiers to follow the leads of BC and Quebec and set sales targets of their own. As it happens, Newfoundland and Labrador is consulting the public about future climate policies right now. Otherwise, you might, paradoxically, have to hope that EV sales stall in Quebec, BC and Ontario so they have to look elsewhere to fill their quota.
