Hybrids are on the way out… good riddance

For most, hybrids are an expensive solution to a rare problem, and they aren’t as green as advertised

A new report by Bloomberg NEF shows by 2025, only a quarter of electric vehicles will also burn fossil fuels, and plug-in hybrid sales will peak a year later. Hybrids like the Prius helped establish electric motor credibility and were an important “bridge technology” when EV batteries were less capable and more expensive, but are now a distraction and plug-in hybrids are still attracting government subsidies (including, recently, in my own province) even when they can be more polluting than some gas-only vehicles.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) (whose batteries can be charged directly instead of relying indirectly on a gas engine to charge) are undoubtedly better than earlier hybrids. But a recent large scale study of real-world use of PHEVs in Europe from the International Council on Clean Transportation found, “The average real-world electric driving share is about 45%–49% for private cars and about 11%–15% for company cars.” This is much less than the assumptions built into the standard European emissions tests (the WLTP) and as a result hybrids’ emissions are three to five times higher than claimed (!)

Why is this? They identify four reasons:

1. Real-world all-electric range is shorter than claimed.
2. Long distance driving exceeds the electric driving range and leads to large distances travelled mainly powered by the combustion engine.
3. Many vehicles are not fully charged before every driving day.
4. When the combustion engine is running, it uses more fuel than claimed.

The chart below from the same organization in March shows that while PHEVs are somewhat better overall than gas powered cars over their lifespan, the difference is not large.

From a March ICCT study comparing PHEVs and BEVs in Germany

They recommend, sensibly, “the purchase subsidy for PHEVs should be reduced or limited to those with low fuel consumption during real-world operation” — one way would be only subsidizing cars with real-world all-electric ranges of 90km — and suggest banning PHEVs altogether from 2030.

There are undoubtedly some situations where hybrids will continue to be useful — larger, long distance trucks for example. In an earlier post I gave some tips to help you decide for yourself what battery-powered range you will actually need in the next car you get.

But every ‘green’ PHEV customers are convinced to buy instead of a fully battery powered car (BEV) simply because it’s more profitable for manufacturers or dealers soaks up government subsidies and reduces the green benefits of electrification. Worse, the “range anxiety” rhetoric sometimes used to sell PHEVs and other hybrids to motorists considering a BEV could drive them away from electric vehicles altogether.